When Mitchell Berman received an email from Elon Musk asking him to justify his job as a front-line emergency room nurse at the Department of Veterans Affairs, he began thinking more seriously about how he could make a difference beyond the hospital.
The email came as the Department of Government Efficiency, commonly referred to as DOGE, began making cuts and hiring freezes in spring 2025. More than a year later, Berman is still working emergency room shifts, but is now campaigning as the Democratic challenger to four-term Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.
“I kind of realized if we really wanted to help improve things for folks, not even just at the VA, but for people in our communities, it was going to take somebody from the ground floor standing up and fighting for it,” Berman said.
The southeastern district is emerging as an unexpected battleground as Democrats look to capitalize on a shifting political environment and political newcomer Berman attempts to unseat Steil, who has represented the district since 2019.
Recent polling from Democratic-aligned organizations shows a close race, leading to increased national attention and campaign spending. Democrats point to dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s policies and congressional Republicans’ continued support of them as reasons the traditionally Republican district could be more competitive, while Steil noted he has faced significant Democratic spending in the district before and has continued to win.
“We’ve seen national Democrats spend millions of dollars in southeast Wisconsin before,” Steil said. “My strategy remains the same: Go speak directly to voters about the issues that are in front of us, and we have ultimately been successful in earning the support of the majority of voters four times in a row in the southern part of the state.”
About 38% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Trump’s job performance, according to a Sept. 30 Marquette Law School Poll.
An Oct. 3 poll conducted by Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC showed Berman leading Steil 48% to 47% among likely voters. The poll also found 56% of respondents viewed Trump unfavorably. A Sept. 29 poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) found the candidates tied at 48%.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analyst, recently shifted the district from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
In 2024, a Congressional Leadership Fund poll found Steil leading his challenger Peter Barca, a former member of Congress and Assembly minority leader, by 10 percentage points less than a month ahead of the general election, and Steil went on to win by that much.
Recent election results, however, show differences in how voters in the district have supported presidential, congressional and Supreme Court candidates. Trump carried the district by 4.5 percentage points in 2024. But liberal Supreme Court candidates have won the district by at least 6 percentage points in elections since 2023.
Democratic political strategist Joe Zepecki said the national political environment could make the district more competitive than it has been in previous elections.
“When the political environment is as bad for either party as it is bad for Republicans right now, races that didn’t seem plausible a year ago suddenly get very real,” Zepecki said.
Zepecki said Steil could have difficulty distancing himself from the administration as voters react to Trump’s actions.
“The way that Trump’s choices and congressional Republicans’ refusal to do anything about it is really hamstringing candidates like Steil, who otherwise would be viewed as safer than he finds himself today,” Zepecki said.
Republican political strategist Bill McCoshen, however, said Democrats appear to be “potentially overreacting” to what he said appears to be a favorable national environment for their party. He said he was surprised Democrats are targeting the district.
“Will that national environment still be there in three or four weeks? We don’t know. So I guess as they’re trying to put more seats in play right now, and then they’ll narrow it down to the ones they think they have the best shot at in the final two weeks,” McCoshen said.
Who has the advantage?
Steil in 2026 benefits from advantages in name recognition and financial resources compared to his opponent, McCoshen noted.
A campaign finance report from Oct. 15 showed Steil with more than $4.2 million in his campaign chest, compared with about $338,000 for Berman.
But Berman’s campaign has received additional support from national Democrats. In September, Berman was added to the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which provides selected Democratic candidates with additional fundraising and organizational support.
Barca was also added to the program during his 2024 campaign. He said the designation helped raise national money because people want to invest in candidates they believe can win.
He said the political environment changed significantly since he ran.
“The whole focus (in 2024) was putting Biden and Harris on the defensive and because even though things were improving, people didn’t really sense that big of an improvement,” Barca said. “And now though, I mean, it hasn’t been this bad since I think the recession of ’08. So as a consequence, I think it’s a completely different environment than it was.”
Outside groups have also started pouring money into the race, bringing more national attention to the district.
The House Majority PAC has a $2.7 million ad buy planned for this district, according to AdImpact. Steil has still outpaced Berman in overall advertising spending, with about $5.9 million compared with more than $3 million for Berman, WisPolitics reported. The DCCC also made a joint ad buy of more than $270,000 for the Berman campaign.
Republican-aligned groups are also pouring money into the race. The No Going Back Pac, backed by Trump, spent over $400,000 on Steil along with crypto-backed Super PAC Wisconsin Working PAC spending over $500,000.
But Barca said spending may not be enough to overcome a broader political shift if voters remain displeased with the policies supported by Steil and other congressional Republicans.
“This is one of those potentially wave years where money can’t save you,” Barca said. “When you’ve got people hopping mad, and especially given they can connect the dots and tie what’s going on directly to policies that Steil has supported, I think that hurts dramatically.”
Candidates make their case to voters at home
While the political environment and campaign spending have drawn national attention to the race, both candidates are focused on emphasizing their message to voters in the district through their policy priorities and differing visions.
Berman, a political newcomer with more than two decades of experience in health care, is positioning himself as an outsider who can relate to working-class voters.
“I’m the true definition of a working-class candidate. I’m still working shifts in the emergency room as we run the campaign because I have a mortgage to pay,” Berman said. “Unlike Brian Steil, who sort of left for D.C. and kind of forgotten where he comes from, this is my home, and I’m invested in seeing our community do better.”
Berman said his experience in health care has shaped both his campaign and his decision to enter politics. Zepecki said this background could give him an advantage in a race where health care costs are a major concern for voters.
“I think he is exactly the kind of candidate you want at a time when health care costs are among the most severe pain points that families are dealing with,” Zepecki said.
Berman has called for lowering health care costs, restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He is also campaigning to raise the minimum wage, protect reproductive rights and provide more funding for environmental protection.
He criticized Steil’s support for Trump’s tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, saying Steil’s support for policies like these have made life more difficult for Wisconsin residents.
Steil has emphasized securing the border, protecting older adults, supporting law enforcement and that he is “a strong supporter of life,” which signals support for the anti-abortion movement without mentioning the hot-button issue. He also highlighted legislation he supported, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reduced taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security and increased the standard deduction.
Both candidates emphasized affordability as the top issue for voters in the district, but disagree about the route to addressing it.
Steil said Berman’s policy proposals would put more of a financial burden on taxpayers while Berman said Steil has failed to deliver on promises to lower costs.
“Brian Steil has made a lot of promises to folks here in this district,” Berman said. “He’s been running cycle after cycle on lowering costs, making health care affordable, protecting Social Security, and he, in fact, has not done any of those things.”
Steil pointed to his support for legislation that’s helped lower costs, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and legislation to produce more domestic oil and gas to lower household energy and living costs for Americans.
“There’s more work to be done, and I think what you see is a contrast in policies between the radical left at the national stage, supported by my opponent, that would make life more expensive for families here in Wisconsin versus our policies to lower the costs for hardworking families,” Steil said.
The candidates do share some common ground. Both have emphasized supporting veterans, with Berman drawing on more than a decade of experience working at the VA. Both have also emphasized protecting Social Security.
Steil, having won four previous times, said the district has always been competitive and that his strategy remains the same as it has been even with continued efforts by Democrats.
“It’s a swing area of the state, a swing area of the country, which is why my focus is always on the grassroots and on direct voter outreach,” Steil said.
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