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No.
Most Americans would not face a tax increase near 65% if President Donald Trump’s tax cut extension does not become law.
The bill would extend income tax cuts set to expire Dec. 31. It would offset some costs with Medicaid and food stamp cuts.
The Tax Foundation estimates that if the cuts expire, 62% of taxpayers would see a tax increase in 2026. The average taxpayer’s increase would be 19.4% ($2,955).
House Republicans estimated 22%, a figure cited by the White House.
GOP U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who represents western Wisconsin, claimed May 17 at the Wisconsin Republican Party convention that “the vast majority of Americans” would see a 65% increase.
His office did not respond to requests for information.
Tax Policy Center expert Howard Gleckman said “there is no income group that would get anything like a 65% tax hike.”
University of Wisconsin-Madison economist Andrew Reschovsky also said the 65% claim is far from accurate.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
- Congress.gov: H.R.1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act
- Tax Foundation: Garrett Watson email
- X: House Republicans post
- The White House: Here’s What Happens if Trump Tax Cuts Aren’t Extended
- WisconsinEye: 2025 Republican Party of Wisconsin State Convention
- Tax Policy Center: Howard Gleckman email
- Wall Street Journal: GOP Races to Overcome Final Hurdles in Passing Trump Tax Bill
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