U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil has been elected three times, has $3.6 million in campaign cash, and his seat, previously held by GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan, is rated as “likely Republican.”
No prominent Democrat has emerged to run against Steil.
Yet the liberal group Opportunity Wisconsin has made the Janesville Republican one of the nation’s most targeted candidates in the 2024 elections.
The Madison-based group, which was credited with turning persuadable Wisconsin voters against Donald Trump in 2020, has spent $1.4 million in advertising to attack Steil, AdImpact reported Feb. 12.
That’s the ninth-highest total among candidates running for federal or state office in 2024 and the third-highest for any U.S. House of Representatives race, according to AdImpact, an advertising tracking firm based outside of Washington, D.C.
While Steil’s seat appears relatively safe, it’s actually “rather competitive,” said University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor Barry Burden. Noting that Trump won the 1st District by two points in 2020 while losing the state by less than one point, “even a slight shift in political winds could bring the district into play,” he said.
Wisconsin Watch is a nonprofit, nonpartisan newsroom. Subscribe to our newsletters for original stories and our Friday news roundup.
The tack Opportunity Wisconsin is taking isn’t necessarily what you’d expect.
The economy, abortion, immigration, democracy and Ukraine are among the top issues this cycle. But Opportunity Wisconsin, led by former U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin aide Meghan Roh, has hit Steil on Social Security and Medicare, prescription drug prices, and tax breaks for the rich.
Roh said Opportunity Wisconsin has targeted Steil as part of its efforts to champion laws that help working families, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which Steil voted against.
One example: A TV ad posted Jan. 9 said Steil “is part of a group that wants to cut Social Security and Medicare,” a claim PolitiFact rated “mostly false,” and “is pushing huge tax breaks for wealthy corporations.”
Steil’s House and campaign spokespeople did not reply to requests for comment.
One reason Steil is targeted is that redistricting in 2022 made the 1st District less Republican. Steil won with 54% of the vote in 2022, down from 59% in 2020.
Moreover, the Wisconsin Supreme Court was asked Jan. 17 to redraw the state’s congressional maps again after the court’s liberal majority tossed out the state’s legislative districts.
The court on March 1 refused the request with Justice Janet Protasiewicz, whose election last year tipped control to liberals, declining to participate.
Before the decision, Burden speculated that if that case were to move forward, “it could seriously jeopardize the state’s incumbent members of Congress, but particularly Steil because of the close political balance of his current district.”
Spending by groups such as Opportunity Wisconsin is also part of a larger trend.
Outside spending on 2024 federal races is outpacing all previous election cycles, according to the campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets. The nearly $318 million spent on presidential and congressional races as of Jan. 14 was more than six times as much as had been spent at the same point in 2020.
What we’re watching this week
Monday
The Governor’s Task Force on Workforce and Artificial Intelligence is holding a meeting in Oshkosh at 1 p.m. Check it out on Wisconsin Eye.
Wednesday
The Senate Committee on Universities and Revenue will hold a public hearing at 10 a.m. in Capitol Room 411S on several bills, including one that would effectively end immunization requirements at public universities. The bill passed the Assembly on a party line 62-35 vote on Feb. 22. Another bill that already passed the Assembly would prohibit public universities from requiring students or faculty to sign ideological statements or pledges, such as those promising to support diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
Thursday
The Milwaukee Press Club hosts a Newsmaker Luncheon with Milwaukee Police Chief Jeffrey Norman at 11:45 a.m. at the Newsroom Pub, 137 E. Wells St.
WISDOM is hosting an “End the Lockdowns Campaign” event at 6 p.m. at St. Norbert College, 400 3rd St., in De Pere. Read more about the situation in Wisconsin’s prisons here.
Friday
The UW-Madison Elections Research Center is hosting a panel on “Current Challenges to Election Administration” at 3 p.m. at the UW Law School. Register here to attend online or in person.
Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
