Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers qhuas nws thaum nws hais lus yeej hnub Tuesday, Kaum Ib Hlis 8, 2022, ntawm Orpheum Theatre hauv Madison, Wis. (Angela Major / WPR)
Sijhawm Nyeem Ntawv: 4 feeb

Wisconsin Saib yog lub koom haum tsis muaj txiaj ntsig thiab tsis koom nrog xov xwm. Subscribe rau peb nawb tsab ntawv xov xwm kom tau txais peb cov dab neeg tshawb nrhiav thiab xov xwm hnub Friday sib sau ua ke. Zaj dab neeg no tau luam tawm hauv kev koom tes nrog Lub Koom Haum Xov Xwm.

ATLANTA (AP) - Kev pov npav nws lub hlis no hauv ib lub xeev muaj kev sib tw nom tswv feem ntau hauv Asmeskas, Seung Lee zoo siab txhawb nqa Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp's rov xaiv dua. Tab sis thaum nws los txog rau lwm sab saum toj Republican ntawm daim ntawv xaiv tsa, Senate tus neeg sib tw Herschel Yamntxwv, nws tsis xis nyob.

Walker "tsis paub tias nws tab tom tham txog dab tsi," said Lee, tus kws sim software hauv Atlanta suburb ntawm Decatur uas thaum kawg txhawb Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock.

Nws tsuas yog ib qho ntawm ntau pua txhiab tus neeg pov npav thoob tebchaws Asmeskas uas tau faib lawv daim pib xyoo no hauv kev sib tw tseem ceeb rau cov thawj coj lub tsev loj thiab cov rooj zaum hauv pawg nom tswv.

Cov neeg pov npav txiav txim siab faib lawv daim pib lossis buck lawv tog tag nrho tuaj yeem pab Democrats txhim kho qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj qhov kev cia siab hauv midterm kev xaiv tsa. AP VoteCast, ib qho kev soj ntsuam dav dav ntawm cov neeg xaiv tsa xyoo no, qhia txog tias cov neeg xaiv tsa tau xaiv li cas hauv lawv cov kev xaiv txawm hais tias niaj hnub no muaj kev cuam tshuam kev nom kev tswv, feem ntau tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo rau cov neeg sib tw pom raws li qhov tseem ceeb thaum tsis lees txais cov uas pom tias yog qhov phem heev.

Hauv Georgia, Kemp yeej ntau dua 200,000 tus neeg pov npav ntau dua li Walker, yav dhau los lub hnub qub ncaws pob uas tau ntsib teeb meem thoob plaws nws. phiaj los nqis tes, nrog rau nws exaggerations txog nws cov ntaub ntawv ua lag luam, accusations ntawm kev nruj kev tsiv rau nws thawj tus poj niam thiab kev iab liam los ntawm ob tug qub hluas nkauj hais tias nws them rau lawv rho menyuam. Nws qhov kev pov npav tsis txaus ntseeg tau yuam nws mus rau hauv kev sib tw nrog Warnock.

Thaum 7 ntawm 10 Georgia cov neeg xaiv tsa rau Kemp tau hais tias lawv txaus siab txhawb nqa nws, tsuas yog ib nrab ntawm cov phooj ywg Republican Walker cov neeg xaiv tsa tau hais tias, raws li VoteCast. Ntawm cov neeg txhawb nqa Walker, kwv yees li 4 ntawm 10 tau hais tias lawv txhawb nqa nws nrog kev tshwj tseg thiab kwv yees li 1 ntawm 10 tau hais tias lawv tsuas yog tawm tsam lwm tus neeg sib tw.

Cov dynamics tau pom meej dua nyob rau lwm qhov.

Hauv Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro yeej tus tswv xeev cov haiv neeg los ntawm ib tug loj margin tshaj John Fetterman nyob rau hauv Senate haiv neeg, khwv tau ze li ntawm 280,000 ntau votes. Fetterman, uas tau ntsib kev mob stroke thaum lub Tsib Hlis, tau tawm tsam kev txhawj xeeb txog nws txoj kev noj qab haus huv hauv kev sib tw nruj nrog Republican tus kws phais neeg muaj koob meej Mehmet Oz.

VoteCast pom 8% ntawm cov neeg pov npav hauv Pennsylvania faib lawv daim pib. Ntawm cov neeg pov npav txheeb xyuas tias yog Republicans, qhov tseem ceeb 9% tau mus rau Democrat Fetterman, thiab ntau dua - 18% - mus rau Shapiro.

Kev faib daim pib nyob rau hauv kev xaiv tsa no yog qhov tseem ceeb tshwj xeeb vim tias nws tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim nyob rau hauv lub voj voog tsis ntev los no "raws li cov neeg xaiv tsa tau dhau los ua ntau dua thiab ntau tus neeg koom siab," said G. Terry Madonna, tus khub laus nyob hauv tsev rau kev nom kev tswv ntawm Millersville University of Pennsylvania.

VoteCast qhia tias cov neeg xaiv tsa rau Oz thiab Doug Mastriano, Republican tus neeg sib tw rau tus tswv xeev, tsis txaus siab dua cov neeg xaiv tsa rau Fetterman thiab Shapiro.

Shapiro cov neeg xaiv tsa tau tshaj tawm cov phooj ywg Democrat Fetterman hauv kev txaus siab. Tseem, txawm tias muaj ntau tus neeg pov npav tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab rau Fetterman txoj kev noj qab haus huv, VoteCast qhia tau hais tias Pennsylvania cov neeg pov npav muaj kev txhawj xeeb me ntsis txog Oz qhov kev paub nrog lub xeev.

Txog 4 ntawm 10 tus neeg pov npav rau Republican Mastriano tau hais tias lawv txhawb nqa nws nrog kev tshwj tseg, thiab kwv yees li 1 ntawm 10 tau txhawb nqa nws txhawm rau tawm tsam lwm tus neeg sib tw. Zuag qhia tag nrho, kwv yees li ob feem peb ntawm Pennsylvania cov neeg pov npav tau txhawj xeeb tias Mastriano, uas tau txib tsheb npav rau cov neeg tuaj koom lub rooj sib tham uas ua ntej Lub Ib Hlis 6 kev ua phem rau US Capitol, muaj kev xav tias "hnyav heev." Tsuas yog hais txog 4 ntawm 10 hais tias ntawm Shapiro.

Mastriano "muaj lub hauv paus ntawm (yav tas los Thawj Tswj Hwm Donald) Trump cov neeg txhawb siab siab tshaj plaws, yog vim li cas nws thiaj li tau txais kev xaiv tsa, tab sis nws tsis tuaj yeem nthuav tawm lub hauv paus ntawd," Millersville University's Madonna tau hais. "Lub Koom Haum Republicans kuj tau tsiv tawm ntawm nws." Madonna tau tawm tswv yim tias muaj ntau cov ntsiab lus los ua li ntawd tau muab qee qhov ntawm Shapiro qhov teeb meem nruab nrab ntau dua, suav nrog rau fracking.

Hauv Wisconsin thiab Michigan, cov thawj coj hauv Democratic tau kov yeej cov neeg sib tw Republican uas tau pom zoo los ntawm Trump thiab rov hais dua nws qhov kev tsis lees paub ntawm 2020 cov txiaj ntsig.

Rau caum-peb feem pua ​​ntawm Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers cov neeg pov npav tab sis tsuas yog 47% ntawm Republican Tim Michels cov neeg txhawb nqa tau hais tias lawv txhawb nqa lawv cov neeg sib tw txaus siab. Txog ntau tus neeg xaiv tsa Michels tau hais tias lawv txhawb nqa nws nrog kev tshwj tseg. Los ntawm qhov sib txawv, hauv kev sib tw rau US Senate, 54% ntawm cov neeg pov npav rau yeej Republican tus thawj tswj hwm Ron Johnson tau mob siab rau nws.

Michels yog ib tus neeg sib tw tsis muaj zog - "nws muaj qee qhov kev lav phib xaub," said Charles Franklin, tus thawj coj ntawm Marquette Law School poll hauv Wisconsin. Thiab hauv kev sib tw Senate, txawm tias Johnson yeej rov xaiv tsa dua Democrat Mandela Barnes, cov npoo tau nqaim dua li nws qhov kev yeej xyoo 2016 lossis 2010.

"Kuv xav tias muaj ib qho xwm txheej muaj zog ntawm no uas qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm Democratic tau txhawb nqa tus tswv xeev txoj kev sib tw me ntsis dhau ob lub ntsiab lus los ntawm qhov uas nws tau plaub xyoos dhau los, thiab tseem nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem nruj kev sib tw Senate rau qhov tsuas yog ib qho taw tes rau Johnson," Franklin hais tias.

Hauv Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tau txais kev txhawb siab ntau dua li nws tus neeg sib tw Republican Tudor Dixon. Ntau qhov kev txhawj xeeb tias Dixon yog "hnyav heev" hauv nws txoj kev xav nom tswv tshaj li hais tias Whitmer, 62% vs. 46%. Kwv yees li 1 ntawm 10 Republican cov neeg xaiv tsa tau txhawb nqa Democrat.

Arizona sawv tawm ntawm tus so hauv kev ntsuas ntawm kev txaus siab. Democrat Katie Hobbs yeej Republican Kari Lake hauv kev sib tw rau tus tswv xeev txawm tias Lake cov neeg xaiv tsa tau zoo siab dua rau yav dhau los xov xwm xov xwm hauv TV.

Plaub caug rau feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg txhawb nqa Hobbs tau hais tias lawv txaus siab txhawb nqa nws, piv rau 56% ntawm cov neeg txhawb nqa Lake. Plaub caug-ib feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg pov npav Hobbs txhawb nws nrog kev tshwj tseg, thaum 12% tau pov npav tawm tsam lwm tus neeg sib tw.

Lake, leej twg ntau tshaj ib zaug hais kom " McCain Republicans" hais tias lawv tsis nyob hauv tsev hauv nws pawg neeg, tej zaum yuav tau tua cov tswv cuab nruab nrab ntawm pawg neeg.

Ib yam li lwm lub xeev, cov neeg pov npav hauv Arizona muaj feem yuav txhawj xeeb tias Lake txoj kev xav txog kev nom kev tswv yog "hnyav heev", piv nrog Hobbs ', 59% vs. 51%. Kaum ib feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg pov npav uas tau txheeb xyuas tias yog Republicans txhawb nqa Democrat Hobbs, suav nrog 25% ntawm Republicans uas tau txheeb xyuas tias muaj kev ywj pheej lossis kev ywj pheej.

Reed Galen, tus tsim ntawm Lincoln Project, ib pab pawg GOP uas tawm tsam Trump tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias qhov koj pom yog qhov kev sib koom ua ke txawv txawv no tau tsim ... "Kev sib koom ua ke ntawm Democrats, ywj pheej thiab Republicans uas txav mus rau Democratic tus neeg sib tw, vim tias tus ntawd yog tus neeg uas lawv pom tias siv tau tshaj plaws."

"Tab sis peb yuav tsum tsis txhob kwv yees tias qhov kev sib tw no ze npaum li cas," nws hais ntxiv. "Yog vim li cas peb hu cov khoom no ua si ntawm tus lej me."

Nrov dab neeg los ntawm Wisconsin Watch