Nws yog hom ntawv tshaj tawm uas tej zaum yuav xaus rau hauv cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab dua li cov ntawv nyeem. Tshaj tawm hauv lub Tsib Hlis, "Tenure, Turnover thiab Reelection in Wisconsin Legislature, 1940-2012,” ib daim ntawv tshaj tawm 32-nplooj ntawv los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Cai Lij Choj, nyob mus txog nws lub npe uas tsis muaj suab npe, thiab tau txais raws li.
Ib tug Republican xeev senator tso tawm ib qhov txuas ntawm nws qhov blog. Xov tooj cua reporter, in a tweet, hu ua "interesting." Qhov ntawd yog hais txog nws, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm pej xeem cov tshuaj tiv thaiv.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm, los ntawm LRB Senior Legislative Analyst Michael Keane, tshuaj xyuas kev hloov pauv hauv kev cai lij choj nyob rau hauv xya xyoo caum, muab cov kev ntsuas muaj txiaj ntsig rau qhov twg los sib piv cov kev xaiv tsa tam sim no. Nws tau npaj, Keane hais tias, txhawm rau pab lub koomhaum pabcuam kev cai lij choj teb cov lus nug uas nquag nug.
Qhov tseem ceeb, nyob rau hauv tag nrho peb qhov chaw nyob rau hauv kev tshuaj xyuas - kev tuav pov hwm, kev hloov pauv thiab rov xaiv dua - cov kev xav ntawm ntau xyoo dhau los tsis tau muaj tseeb hauv kev xaiv tsa tsis ntev los no.
Ua haujlwm. Kev tsim cai lij choj ntev tshaj li ob npaug los ntawm qib ua ntej xyoo 1960 hauv ob chav, topping qhov nruab nrab ntawm ntau tshaj tsib zaug rau ib tus neeg sawv cev hauv xyoo 2009 thiab plaub zaug ntawm Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev hauv 2003. txhua ob xyoos.)
Tab sis nyob rau hauv 99-tus tswv cuab los ua ke, qhov nruab nrab no poob mus rau 2.4 zaug hauv 2013, qhov qis tshaj txij li xyoo 1975. Nyob rau hauv 33-tus tswv cuab Senate, qhov nruab nrab dipped nyob rau hauv 2011, thaum yim senators tshiab inaugurated; nws yuav poob rov qab rau xyoo 2015, tom qab kev xaiv tsa lub caij nplooj zeeg uas xya tus thawj tswj hwm, suav nrog ntau tus qub tub rog, tsis nrhiav kev xaiv tsa.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj qhia txog kev poob qis ntawm kev sib tw hauv tog. Xav txog: Nyob nruab nrab ntawm 1946 thiab 1956, tag nrho ntawm 75 Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev tau swb rau hauv thawj theem - ntau dua li kev xaiv tsa thoob plaws lub xyoo no. Qhov sib txawv ntawd rau rau lub voj voog txij li xyoo 2000, uas tsuas yog plaub lub rooj sib txoos tau raug tshem tawm hauv cov thawj coj.
Nyob rau lub Yim Hli 12 uas yuav los tom ntej no, tsuas yog plaub tus neeg tsim cai lij choj nyob hauv ob lub tsev ntsib cov neeg sib tw hauv tog. (Yuav muaj ob lub teb chaws tsim cai lij choj nyob rau hauv tag nrho, feem ntau hauv cov cheeb tsam uas muaj rooj zaum qhib.)
Tab sis txawm tias muaj tsawg dua cov kev cov nyom, kev hloov pauv yog nyob rau ntawm qhov rov qab, tom qab ntau xyoo ntawm kev poob qis. Xyoo 1940, Pawg Sib Tham tau txais tos qhov nruab nrab ntawm ntau dua 36 tus tswv cuab tshiab txhua qhov kev sib tham. Los ntawm 2000s, qhov nruab nrab poob mus rau 15. Tab sis xyoo 2011 kev xaiv tsa muaj 30 freshmen, feem ntau txij li xyoo 1983; muaj 25 lub ntsej muag tshiab hauv xyoo 2013, thiab muaj 22 lub rooj qhib lub caij nplooj zeeg no.
Hauv Senate, qhov twg 16 lossis 17 cheeb tsam tuav kev xaiv tsa txhua lub voj voog, cov tswv cuab tshiab nruab nrab ntau dua cuaj xyoo 1940; los ntawm 1990s, qhov no tau poob rau 2.4. Tab sis qhov nruab nrab rebounded mus rau ntau tshaj plaub nyob rau hauv lub 2000s, thiab nyob rau hauv 2011 lub Senate txais tos yim senators tshiab, feem ntau txij li thaum 1963. Lub caij nplooj zeeg lub xaiv tsa, nrog xya qhib rooj, yuav sib npaug los yog saum toj no.
Ib qho tseem ceeb rau qhov kev nce siab tsis ntev los no yog qhov nce ntawm cov neeg tsim cai lij choj uas tsis nrhiav kev xaiv tsa. Qhov no yog qhov tseeb tshwj xeeb hauv Pawg Sib Tham, qhov twg los ntawm 1990 txog 2008 qhov nruab nrab ntawm 87 incumbents nrhiav rov xaiv dua. Tag nrho yog 79 xyoo 2010, 80 xyoo 2012 thiab yuav yog 77 xyoo no.
Lwm qhov tseem ceeb: Kev rov xaiv tsa tsis yog tsis siv neeg lawm. Hauv Senate, qhov kev vam meej ntawm cov senators nrhiav kev rov xaiv tsa tau nce 90 feem pua hauv xyoo 1980 thiab 1990 thiab sawv ntawm 86 feem pua hauv xyoo 2000. Qhov no poob rau 79 feem pua hauv xyoo 2010 thiab 2012 ua ke.
Qhov kev vam meej ntawm Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev nrhiav kev rov xaiv tsa, uas yog qhov xav tsis thoob 96 feem pua hauv xyoo 1990 thiab 2000s, kuj tau poob qis hauv ob qhov kev xaiv tsa zaum kawg.
Keane txoj kev tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev tswj hwm, tsis yog kev koom nrog tog. Nws tau sau tseg tias, thaum lub sijhawm tshuaj xyuas, Wisconsin tau pom "kev hloov pauv tiag tiag hauv txoj cai lij choj xaiv tsa, rov qab tswj hwm thiab nyiaj txiag kev sib tw."
Kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov xwm txheej no tseem xav tau rau txhua tus neeg sim nkag siab tsis yog tsuas yog muaj dab tsi tshwm sim dhau sijhawm hauv lub xeev cov kev cai lij choj kev xaiv tsa, tab sis yog vim li cas.
Bill Lueders yog tus thawj coj ntawm Money and Politics Project ntawm Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism (www.wisconsinwatch.org). Lub Center tsim qhov project hauv kev koom tes nrog MapLight. Lub Chaw koom tes nrog Wisconsin Public Radio, Wisconsin Public TV, lwm yam xov xwm tshaj tawm thiab UW-Madison Tsev Kawm Ntawv ntawm Kev Sau Xov Xwm thiab Kev Sib Txuas Lus. Txhua yam haujlwm tsim, luam tawm, tshaj tawm lossis tshaj tawm los ntawm Lub Chaw tsis tas yuav cuam tshuam txog kev xav lossis kev xav ntawm UW-Madison lossis ib qho ntawm nws cov koom tes.
Rov luam tawm peb cov ntawv dawb, hauv online lossis luam tawm, raws li daim ntawv tso cai Creative Commons.
