Sijhawm Nyeem Ntawv: 3 feeb

Qee lub sij hawm nws zoo li cov cuab yeej kwv yees siv hauv kev xaiv tsa tau dhau los ua qhov muaj zog heev uas qhov kev pov npav tiag tiag yog qhov tsis txaus: Cov neeg pov npav thiab cov neeg pov npav tuaj yeem saib cov ntaub ntawv thiab tshaj tawm cov yeej ua ntej.

Xav txog qhov kev xaiv tsa lub caij nplooj zeeg yuav los tom ntej hauv lub Xeev Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas Kev Cai lij choj, qhov twg tsis tshua muaj neeg coob coob tsis nrhiav kev xaiv tsa. Tsawg kawg yog 21 lub xeev cov neeg sawv cev, suav nrog 14 Republicans, tab tom mus rau lwm yam. Tseem yuav muaj tsawg kawg yog rau lub rooj zaum Senate.

Qhov no puas yog lub sijhawm rau cov haiv neeg tsawg ntawm Democrats kom tau txais txiaj ntsig loj, tej zaum txawm rov qab tswj hwm? Cov pundits tab tom co taub hau.

Nyob rau hauv lub Rooj Sib Tham, qhov twg txhua lub rooj zaum ntawm daim ntawv xaiv tsa, GOP tam sim no muaj 60-39 lub rooj kom zoo dua. Thiab ua tsaug rau ib feem ntawm txoj cai tswjfwm kev cai lij choj, tsis muaj ntau lub nroog yuav muaj kev sib tw ntawm ob tog.

Joe Handrick, yav dhau los tus tsim cai lij choj ntawm Republican uas tau pab rov tsim cov ciam teb xaiv tsa, suav ua ntej xyoo 2012 kev xaiv tsa uas cov txheej txheem no tau tsim 50 GOP-tus phooj ywg rooj zaum, piv rau 38 rau Democrats. Nws tsuas tshuav 11 lub rooj zaum "s viav vias" xwb, qhov twg cov neeg pov npav xaiv xaiv qhov nruab nrab nyob rau hauv plaub-point margin hauv kev xaiv tsa tseem ceeb tsis ntev los no.

Cov prognostications no muaj tseeb. Hauv kev xaiv tsa xyoo 2012, Republicans me ntsis nce lawv cov hlau lead hauv lub Rooj Sib Tham txawm tias tau txais kev pov npav tsawg dua li Democrats tag nrho.

Nyuam qhuav pib lub xyoo no, luam tawm tally ntawm 2012 cov txiaj ntsig kev cai lij choj kev xaiv tsa tau muab Republicans tau txais txiaj ntsig 52-36 hauv Pawg Sib Tham, hais txog cov cheeb tsam uas ib tog twg muaj rau lub ntsiab lus lossis zoo dua. Ib zaug ntxiv, tsuas yog 11 lub rooj zaum - ib ntawm cuaj - poob rau hauv qeb "toss-up."

Ib qho kev soj ntsuam cais los ntawm Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism qhia tau hais tias tsuas yog tsib lub rooj sib tham qhib nyob hauv cov cheeb tsam uas cov neeg xaiv tsa xaiv tsa nyob rau hauv rau lub ntsiab lus hauv xyoo 2012 tus thawj tswj hwm lossis US Senate haiv neeg.

Joel Gratz, tus thawj coj ntawm Pawg Sib Tham Democratic Campaign Committee hais tias "Tam sim rov qab ua kom muaj kev nyuaj dua rau peb. "Tab sis tseem muaj kev ywj pheej-tshaj tawm thiab cov rooj zaum sib tw heev uas peb tuaj yeem nqa tau." Party lub hom phiaj yog "ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo."

Hauv lub xeev Senate, GOP txoj kev tswj hwm qhov qis dua, 18-15, thiab Democrats qhov kev sib tw tsawg dua. Ntawm no 17 lub rooj zaum tau nce rau kev xaiv tsa, suav nrog peb lub rooj zaum uas tau tso tseg los ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv txhua tog.

Cov Democrats tau xav tias, vim yog ib feem ntawm kev hloov pauv, yuav poob lub rooj zaum tam sim no los ntawm John Lehman, uas tab tom khiav rau tus thawj tswj hwm. Tab sis lawv muaj kev txhaj tshuaj zoo ntawm cov rooj zaum uas tau so los ntawm Dale Schultz, R-Richland Center, thiab Mike Ellis, R-Neenah, uas yog. ntes rau kab xev tham txog kev tawm tsam tsis raug cai.

Yog tias tag nrho qhov no tshwm sim, Dems tuaj yeem tswj hwm Senate nrog ib qho yeej ntxiv. Cov tseem ceeb sib ntaus sib tua yuav yog lub rooj zaum tawm los ntawm Joe Leibham, uas tab tom khiav rau Congress, thiab cov koom nrog Republicans Terry Moulton, Frank Lasee thiab Jerry Petrowski, uas tab tom nrhiav kev xaiv tsa.

Tab sis lub 2012 leej kev xaiv tsa tau qhia tias qhov no yuav nyuaj npaum li cas. Hauv kev sib tw thawj tswj hwm, cov neeg xaiv tsa hauv plaub cheeb tsam no tau pom zoo rau Republican Mitt Romney tshaj Democrat Barack Obama los ntawm cov npoo ntawm yam tsawg kawg 3.4 feem pua. Thiab Republicans nyiam ua tau zoo dua hauv kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab.

Yog li, tom qab txawm li cas los xij ntau lab nyiaj tau siv rau cov kev xaiv tsa nom tswv no, Republicans yuav muaj peev xwm tswj hwm Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev rau tsawg kawg ob xyoos ntxiv. Tab sis tsis muaj dab tsi tseeb.

Charles Franklin, tus thawj coj ntawm Marquette Law School Poll hais tias "Kev xav ntawm pej xeem tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog kev rov qab los, tab sis tsuas yog thaum pej xeem kev xav tau txav mus rau hauv ib qho kev coj los yog lwm qhov," hais tias Charles Franklin, tus thawj coj ntawm Marquette Law School Poll. Nws sau tseg tias Democrats ua tau zoo nyob rau xyoo 2006 thiab 2008, thiab Republicans yeej yeej nyob rau xyoo 2010, vim li ntawd.

Txog tam sim no, txawm li cas los xij, tsis muaj pov thawj ntawm qhov kev nce siab li ntawd. Qhov tseeb, tsis ntev los no kev xaiv tsa qhia tau hais tias feem coob ntawm cov neeg nyob hauv xav tias Wisconsin yog mus rau hauv txoj kev yog yuav buoy Gov. Scott Walker thiab lwm cov Republicans.

Tau kawg, Franklin tso cai, "Nws ua tau zoo kawg nkaus uas txhua yam yuav hloov ua ntej Hnub Xaiv Tsa."

Yog tias muaj, cov kev xaiv tsa yuav pom nws.

Bill Lueders yog tus thawj coj ntawm Money and Politics Project ntawm Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism (www. WisconsinWatch.org). Lub Center tsim qhov project hauv kev koom tes nrog MapLight.

Lub Chaw koom tes nrog Wisconsin Public Radio, Wisconsin Public TV, lwm yam xov xwm tshaj tawm thiab UW-Madison Tsev Kawm Ntawv ntawm Kev Sau Xov Xwm thiab Kev Sib Txuas Lus. Txhua yam haujlwm tsim, luam tawm, tshaj tawm lossis tshaj tawm los ntawm Lub Chaw tsis tas yuav cuam tshuam txog kev xav lossis kev xav ntawm UW-Madison lossis ib qho ntawm nws cov koom tes.

Creative Commons License

Rov luam tawm peb cov ntawv dawb, hauv online lossis luam tawm, raws li daim ntawv tso cai Creative Commons.

Nrov dab neeg los ntawm Wisconsin Watch