Tsis nco qab kev xaiv tsa. Tsis quav ntsej txog kev pom zoo. Tsis txhob hnov qab txog nyiaj npaum li cas cov neeg sib tw nce. Txhawm rau pom cov kev xaiv tsa twg yog qhov sib tw tiag tiag, saib qhov twg cov kev txaus siab tshwj xeeb tau tso lawv cov nyiaj.
Los yog nchuav nws, raws li rooj plaub.
Hauv Wisconsin, kev sib tw nqhis dej tshaj plaws rau kev siv nyiaj ywj pheej yog ntawm Tommy Thompson thiab Tammy Baldwin rau lub xeev qhib lub rooj zaum Senate.
Cov nyiaj sab nraud ntws mus rau hauv qhov kev sib tw no yog lub hom phiaj txav mus, nce txhua lub sijhawm. Raws li lub Kaum Hlis 9, thaum ib tag hmo, lub Chaw rau Txoj Haujlwm Kev Ua Haujlwm, siv Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Kev Xaiv Tsa cov ntaub ntawv, tau nce $ 14.5 lab hauv kev siv nyiaj rau ob tus neeg sib tw los ntawm pab pawg sab nraud. Qhov ntawd yog nce los ntawm kwv yees li $ 6 lab hauv nruab nrab lub Cuaj Hli.
Ntawm cov nyiaj no $ 14.5 lab, uas tsis suav nrog qee qhov "qhov teeb meem tshaj tawm" yuav tsis tshaj tawm rau FEC, $ 8 lab tau mus rau bash Thompson lossis rov qab Baldwin thiab $ 6.5 lab mus rau blast Baldwin lossis txhawb Thompson.
Thawj qhov kev siv nyiaj rau Thompson yog cov kev saib xyuas tsis muaj txiaj ntsig Hla GPS thiab Neeg Asmeskas rau Txoj Kev vam meej. Ntawm Baldwin sab yog pawg tswj hwm kev tswj hwm Pab Pawg Sib Tham Hauv Zej Zog Kev Koom Tes thiab Feem coob PAC. Txhua tus tau siv ntau dua $ 2 lab - txog tam sim no.
Cov pab pawg sab nraud no puas mob siab rau qhov zoo ntawm Wisconsin tus sawv cev hauv US Senate? Tau kawg tsis. Lawv mob siab txog qhov sib npaug ntawm lub hwj chim hauv Congress.
Joe Heim, tus kws tshaj lij kev tshawb fawb txog kev nom kev tswv ntawm University of Wisconsin-La Crosse hais tias "Cov Republicans tau hais meej meej los tuav US Senate." "Qhov no yog ib lub rooj zaum lawv xav tias lawv tuaj yeem tig."
Ob tog tau nqis peev ntau hauv kev sib tw, tsim kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo. Thompson tau tshwm sim los ntawm thawj zaug nrog rau 9-point lead, ib qho pov npav qhia. Qhov ntawd, Heim hais tias, tau txais kev txhawb nqa rau Baldwin thiab nws cov neeg txhawb nqa: "Thaum koj poob 9 lub ntsiab lus, koj yuav tsum pib siv koj cov nyiaj ntsuab."
Lawv tau ua, tshaj tawm qhov dej nyab ntawm kev tshaj tawm pleev xim Thompson ua cov cuab yeej muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm kev nyiam sab nraud. Nws ua haujlwm. Ib tug tom ntej pov npav pom qhov zoo dua tau hloov pauv, nrog Baldwin ua ntej los ntawm 9 cov ntsiab lus.
Heim hais tias "Nws tau paub meej rau cov tebchaws Republicans tias Tommy muaj teeb meem," Heim hais. "Lawv paub tias lawv yuav tsum tuaj rau nws pab." Lawv tau ua, thiab Baldwin cov thawj coj tau shaved rau 4 cov ntsiab lus hauv qhov tseeb pov npav. "Cov nyiaj ntws los rau nws sawv cev tau pab ua kom muaj kev sib tw no."
Ob lub xeev cov kev sib tw sib tw, ob qho tib si koom nrog Republican incumbents thawj zaug xaiv nyob rau hauv 2010, tau kos nyiaj ntau ntawm sab nraud. Kwv yees li ntawm $ 2.4 lab tau siv rau hauv Cheeb Tsam 7, qhov chaw Rep. Sean Duffy tab tom ntsib yav dhau los Democratic xeev Sen. Pat Kreitlow. Thiab Cheeb Tsam 8 kev sib tw ntawm Rep. Reid Ribble thiab Fox Valley tus neeg ua lag luam Jamie Wall tau kos $ 600,000.
Heim hais tias "Cov Republicans tsuas yog sim tiv thaiv lawv feem coob," Heim hais. "Yog tias Thawj Tswj Hwm Obama nqa Wisconsin handily, qhov ntawd tuaj yeem rub lub rooj zaum hauv pawg nom tswv mus rau sab Democratic."
Qhia, tsis muaj ib qho ntawm rau lwm lub xeev kev sib tw sib tw - suav nrog GOP incumbents Tom Petri, James Sensenbrenner thiab Paul Ryan, Democratic incumbents Gwen Moore thiab Ron Kind, thiab kev sib tw rau Baldwin qhib District 2 lub rooj uas yuav zoo li mus rau Democrat Mark Pocan - muaj kos ntau tshaj ib qho poob lossis ob qho kev siv nyiaj ywj pheej.
Hauv Ryan's District 1 haiv neeg, qhov xav tsis thoob, vim tias tus neeg sib tw Rob Zerban tau tshaj tawm tias tau nce $ 2 lab, ntau npaum li cas, thiab yog suav hais tias ib tug formidable contender. Heim xav tias GOP cov neeg txhawb nqa tau zaum no vim Ryan muaj tsa ntau ntawm nws tus kheej cov nyiaj, txog $ 5 lab. Tab sis qhov ua tsis tiav ntawm pawg Democratic los pab Zerban tuaj yeem qhia tias tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab hauv nws qhov kev xaiv tsa.
Heim hais tias "Koj muab koj cov chips tso rau hauv kev sib tw uas ze," Heim hais. "Txhua sab tsis muaj nyiaj los siv rau cov neeg uas yuav poob rau qhov twg los xij - lossis cov neeg uas yuav yeej qhov twg los xij."
Cov nonprofit Wisconsin Center rau Kev Tshawb Xyuas Xov Xwm (www.WisconsinWatch.org) koom tes nrog Wisconsin Cov Xov Xwm Zej Tsoom, Wisconsin Cov Xov Xwm Rau Pej Xeem, lwm cov xov xwm tshaj tawm thiab UW-Madison Tsev Kawm Ntawv Xov Xwm thiab Kev Sib Txuas Lus. Txhua yam haujlwm tsim, tshaj tawm, tshaj tawm lossis tshaj tawm los ntawm Lub Chaw tsis tas yuav cuam tshuam cov kev xav lossis kev xav ntawm UW-Madison lossis ib qho ntawm cov koom tes.
Rov luam tawm peb cov ntawv dawb, hauv online lossis luam tawm, raws li daim ntawv tso cai Creative Commons.
