Thawj Tswj Hwm Barack Obama qhov tshwm sim hauv Madison thaum Lub Cuaj Hli 28 tau txhawb nqa ib pawg neeg ntau dua 26,500 tos tawm ntau yav tav su nyob rau hauv ib mais-ntev kab. Nws hais rau cov neeg coob coob, nrog kev zoo siab, rau “nyob twj ywm raug rho tawm haujlwm” thiab tsis “ zaum no tawm” thaum nws los txog rau 2010 midterm kev xaiv tsa, txawm tias muaj lus xaiv ntawm ib qho “enthusiasm gap” nruab nrab ntawm Democratic thiab Republican cov neeg pov npav hauv lub xeev no.
Tab sis tam sim no, ib lub lim tiam txij li Thawj Tswj Hwm mus ntsib, Wisconsin tseem tshuav cov lus nug tseem ceeb: Vim li cas Madison?
University of Wisconsin-Madison tus kws tshawb fawb txog kev nom kev tswv Charles Franklin, co-founder ntawm qhov chaw nrov nom tswv Pollster.com (tam sim no muaj los ntawm Huffington Post) tau tso tawm cov tub rog ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv Obama txoj kev xaiv.
1) Thaum Madison yog ib lub nroog muaj kev ywj pheej, Dane County yog qhov tshwj xeeb tshaj yog muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau cov Democrats thaum lub sijhawm xaiv tsa ib nrab.. Franklin piav qhia tias nyob rau hauv kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab ntawm xyoo 2006, Gov. Jim Doyle netted 90,000 ntau votes nyob rau hauv Dane County dua mus rau Republican tus neeg sib tw Mark Green, yeej lub nroog los ntawm 40-point vote margin (piv rau 6-point pov npav. margin thoob xeev). Hauv Nroog Milwaukee, uas yog qhov loj dua, Doyle yeej los ntawm 24-point margin, netting 80,000 votes ntau dua Green.
Hauv kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm xyoo, Democrats feem ntau tau txais cov pov npav ntau dua hauv Milwaukee County vim nws muaj neeg coob coob. Tab sis nyob rau hauv kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab, Franklin tau hais tias, Lub Nroog Dane yog "qhov zoo sib xws No. 1 qhov chaw ntawm cov pov npav ywj pheej." Franklin tau sau tseg tias Milwaukee thiab Dane Lub Nroog ua ke tau sib tw ib ncig ntawm 170,000 tus neeg pov npav rau Doyle, coj nws mus yeej hauv kev xaiv tsa xyoo 2006 uas nws yeej los ntawm kwv yees li 150,000 votes.
"Yog tias koj yog Democrat tab tom nrhiav rau lub hom phiaj nplua nuj, qhov chaw uas koj tuaj yeem khiav tau qhab nia, Dane County yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws los pib," Franklin hais. "Lub xyoo no tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nrog Scott Walker los ntawm Milwaukee, muaj laj thawj zoo los ntseeg tias nws yuav nyuaj rau cov Democrats los ua txhua yam zoo li 80,000 daim npav pov npav uas lawv tau txais hauv Doyle cov ntaub ntawv. Yog li yog tias muaj lub caij nyoog ntawm Democrats yeej thoob lub xeev, nws yuav tsum tau pib nrog qhov ua tau zoo heev hauv Dane County. "
2) Lub ntsej muag muaj ob qho txiaj ntsig tam sim rau lub xeev thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntev rau Thawj Tswj Hwm nws tus kheej. Obama qhov stumping rau Sen. Russ Feingold qhov kev xaiv tsa rov qab thiab Milwaukee Tus Thawj Kav Tebchaws Tom Barrett txoj haujlwm rau Wisconsin tus tswv xeev tam sim no tuaj yeem txhawb nqa kev txhawb nqa Obama tuaj yeem tau txais los ntawm lub xeev thiab cov neeg sib tw yav tom ntej.
Franklin tau hais tias xyoo 2012 yog deb txaus uas Obama qhov zoo li muaj txiaj ntsig luv luv - tab sis "yog tias nws tuaj yeem khaws Feingold hauv Senate thiab pab Barrett ua tus tswv xeev, ces ob qho tib si yuav them rau nws hauv ob xyoos," Franklin hais. "Yog tias ob qho ntawm cov no poob, ces nws tau txais Wisconsin uas tsis tshua muaj phooj ywg rau Democrats - thiab, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv tus tswv xeev lub chaw ua haujlwm, me ntsis ua phooj ywg rau nws cov thawj coj."
3) Kev siv zog kom tau cov tub ntxhais hluas cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa hauv xyoo 2010 tuaj yeem rov ua dua Obama lub hauv paus xyoo 2008. Ib hnub ua ntej nws mus ntsib UW-Madison lub tsev kawm ntawv, Obama tau tuav ib qho hu xov tooj nrog cov tub ntxhais kawm ntawv xov xwm. Ntawm qhov kev tshwm sim nws tus kheej, Thawj Tswj Hwm lees paub cov tub ntxhais hluas hauv cov neeg tuaj saib thaum nws nug tag nrho cov hnub nyoog qis dua 26 xyoo tsa tes. "Txhua tus ntawm koj, thaum koj tawm hauv tsev kawm qib siab, yog tias koj tsis tau nrhiav haujlwm uas muab kev kho mob rau koj, koj yuav muaj peev xwm nyob hauv koj niam koj txiv txoj kev noj qab haus huv mus txog thaum koj muaj 26 xyoo, yog li koj tsis tas yuav muaj kev pheej hmoo mob thiab ua lag luam, ”Obama hais, kom npuaj siab los ntawm cov tub ntxhais kawm cov neeg coob coob.
Hauv kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab xyoo 2006, raws li tau sau tseg los ntawm Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert, feem pua ntawm Wisconsin cov neeg xaiv tsa hnub nyoog qis dua 30 xyoo uas tau pov npav yog siab tshaj hauv txhua lub xeev ntawm 17.4 feem pua. Txawm li cas los xij Franklin tau hais tias Obama, thaum muaj peev xwm txav tau lub tsev kawm ntawv qib siab thiab lub nroog mus rau nws ko taw, tseem yuav tsis tuaj yeem txav cov tub ntxhais hluas pov npav mus xaiv tsa.
Franklin tau hais tias "Nws tau tawm tsam keeb kwm ntawm cov tub ntxhais hluas tawm mus ntau dua nyob rau nruab nrab, thiab nws yog cov lus nug qhib seb nws puas tuaj yeem thim rov qab los yog tsis tau, txawm tias nyob hauv Dane County," Franklin hais. "Tab sis qhov ntawd yog qhov tseeb uas lawv yuav tsum sim."
Rov luam tawm peb cov ntawv dawb, hauv online lossis luam tawm, raws li daim ntawv tso cai Creative Commons.
Allie,
Qhov no yog ib tsab xov xwm zoo. Tej zaum yog tias koj suav nrog cov koom pheej ywj pheej lossis kev xav ywj pheej nws yuav ua rau nws muaj kev sib npaug me ntsis thiab tsis tshua muaj ib txoj hauv kev. Qhov no muaj tseeb tshwj xeeb vim tam sim no lub teb chaws yuav luag faib 3 txoj kev. D, R thiab I. Tsis tas li ntawd, kuv nyiam heev!