Sijhawm Nyeem Ntawv: 6 feeb
Kev sib tw rau tus tswv xeev lub chaw haujlwm tau qhib dav tom qab Gov. Jim Doyle tau tshaj tawm tias nws yuav tsis khiav los xaiv tsa dua. ALEX MORRELL/WCIJ

Republicans vam tias yuav rov ua tus tswv xeev lub chaw haujlwm hauv kev xaiv tsa xyoo tom ntej yuav tau kov yeej cov qauv hloov pauv ntawm cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa, tshwj xeeb hauv cov neeg nyob deb nroog yeej los ntawm Democrats hauv kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm xyoo 2008 thiab 2006 tus tswv xeev cov haiv neeg.

Ntau tshaj li ob feem peb ntawm cov nroog uas tau muab kev yeej rau Republican Thawj Tswj Hwm George Bush hauv 2004 tau hloov pauv los txhawb Democrat Barack Obama xyoo tas los, muab Obama yeej ob tus lej hauv lub xeev uas nyob rau xyoo tas los no yog ib qho ntawm lub teb chaws kev sib ntaus sib tua, cov ntaub ntawv thiab kev xam phaj qhia.

Cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa hauv kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm xyoo tas los tau txo qis ntawm 2 thiab 11 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus hauv Wisconsin 72 lub nroog, piv rau xyoo 2004 tus thawj tswj hwm xaiv tsa, raws li kev tshuaj xyuas los ntawm Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism. Kev tshuaj xyuas yog raws li kev pov npav los ntawm kev xaiv tsa lub Kaum Ib Hlis thiab lub xeev kwv yees ntawm cov neeg pov npav hnub nyoog.

Qee lub xeev Wisconsin cov cheeb tsam nyob deb nroog, ib txwm muaj av rau cov Republicans, pom qhov poob qis tshaj plaws hauv cov neeg tuaj koom hauv xyoo 2008. Ntau lub nroog tau txhawb nqa Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle hauv nws xyoo 2006 rov xaiv tsa.

Qhov kev tshawb pom no tsa ob lo lus nug loj tom qab Doyle lub Yim Hli 17 tshaj tawm tias nws yuav tsis nrhiav kev xaiv tsa dua xyoo 2010:

  • Wisconsin Republicans puas tuaj yeem tawm tsam los ntawm lawv qhov kev ua tsis tau zoo hauv ob qhov kev xaiv tsa yav dhau los los yeej lub rooj zaum uas Doyle tau so?
  • Cov neeg pov npav qis dua li cas los ntawm 2008 hais txog cov neeg pov npav txaus siab rau kev sib tw rau tus tswv xeev?

Cov thawj coj ntawm ob lub xeev tau hais tias txawm tias Democrats tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo hauv xyoo 2008, Wisconsin gubernatorial haiv neeg yuav tsum yog ib qho nyuaj tshaj plaws hauv tebchaws. Nws yuav cim thawj qhov kev xaiv tsa rau tus tswv xeev yam tsis muaj lub luag haujlwm txij li xyoo 1982.

Daim teb uas tau tshaj tawm txog tam sim no suav nrog Democratic Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton thiab Republicans Scott Walker, tus thawj coj hauv Milwaukee County; yav tas los US Rep. Mark Neumann, ib tug neeg tsim tsev los ntawm Nashotah; thiab Mark Todd, tus kws ua lag luam Appleton. Milwaukee Tus kav nroog Tom Barrett, tus Democrat, feem ntau tau hais tias yog tus neeg sib tw muaj peev xwm. Ntau tus neeg tau nthuav tawm kev txaus siab, suav nrog US Rep. Ron Kind, D-La Crosse, thiab yav dhau los Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Loj hype, qis turnout

Nyem rau daim ntawv qhia loj loj ntawm cov neeg pov npav hloov pauv ntawm 2004 thiab 2008 kev xaiv tsa

Kev txo qis hauv cov neeg pov npav thoob lub xeev yog qhov xav tsis thoob, qee cov neeg saib xyuas nom tswv tau hais. Rau caum cuaj feem pua ​​​​ntawm Wisconsin cov neeg muaj hnub nyoog pov npav tau mus xaiv tsa hauv xyoo 2008, piv rau 73 feem pua ​​​​hauv xyoo 2004. Charles Franklin, tus xibfwb ntawm kev tshawb fawb txog kev nom kev tswv hauv University of Wisconsin-Madison, tau hais tias nws tau cia siab tias yuav muaj "kev tawm tsam loj" uas tau muab. cov "ntev, ntev kab" hauv qee cov zej zog ntawm cov neeg pov npav ua ntej Hnub Xaiv Tsa.

Qhov kev tawm mus qis dua "yog qhov xav tsis thoob me ntsis vim muaj keeb kwm ntawm kev xaiv tsa, qhov kev xaiv tsa ntawm kev xaiv tsa, kev pabcuam hnyav heev thiab cov kev xav tau mus nrog nws," pom zoo Steven Davis, tus kws tshaj lij kev nom kev tswv ntawm Edgewood College hauv Madison. "Thiab kuv qhov kev txiav txim siab txo qis yog tias nws tsis cuam tshuam rau Republicans uas tsis tau tawm mus pov npav rau feem ntau."

Cov neeg saib xyuas kev nom kev tswv tau hais tias lub xeev qis dua xyoo 2008 rau cov Republicans uas, tsis tau txais kev tshoov siab los ntawm daim pib coj los ntawm Sen. John McCain lossis tau tawm haujlwm rau Obama yeej, nyob hauv tsev. Obama yeej McCain 56 feem pua ​​​​rau 42 feem pua ​​​​hauv Wisconsin, ib qho kev txiav txim siab yeej piv rau 0.4 feem pua ​​​​ntawm kev yeej Democratic Sen. John Kerry tawm tsam Bush xyoo 2004.

Txawm li cas los xij, Davis tau sau tseg tias xyoo tas los 69 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg tuaj koom yog ntau dua rau kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm hauv Wisconsin dua li xyoo 2004. Kwv yees li ntawm 67 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg pov npav pov npav hauv xyoo 2000 thiab 58 feem pua ​​​​hauv xyoo 1996, raws li Pawg Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm Hauv Xeev, uas saib xyuas kev xaiv tsa.

David Wegge, tus kws tshaj lij txog kev nom kev tswv ntawm St. Norbert College hauv De Pere, tau pom zoo, hais tias, "Qhov tseeb tias peb muaj cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb hauv xyoo 2004 uas tau nce ntau, nws yuav tsis xav tsis thoob tias nws poob me ntsis."

Cov neeg pov npav mus qhov twg?

Nyem rau daim ntawv qhia loj loj ntawm cov neeg pov npav los ntawm lub nroog rau kev xaiv tsa xyoo 2004

Lub Center qhov kev tshuaj xyuas pom tias kev koom nrog cov neeg pov npav poob los ntawm 8 thiab 10 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus hauv 12 lub nroog nyob deb nroog hauv xyoo 2008, thaum qhov txo qis tshaj plaws ntawm 11 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus yog nyob rau hauv Lub Nroog Menominee, lub nroog Democratic-leaning county uas muaj cov neeg tawm suab keeb kwm tsawg. Marquette University tus kws tshawb fawb txog kev nom kev tswv John McAdams tau hais tias nws tuaj yeem yog qhov xwm txheej loj dua hauv lub xeev kev ywj pheej cuam tshuam los ntawm cov kab lis kev cai hauv zos, nyob deb nroog uas tuaj yeem txheeb ze nrog Republican lub tswv yim. McAdams tau hais tias qhov tshwm sim yog hu ua nom tswv "hloov siab".

Nws tau hais tias "Nws yog qhov paub zoo tias kev cuam tshuam cuam tshuam yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam kev nom kev tswv, suav nrog cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa, thiab tseem muaj lwm yam kev ua nom ua tswv, xws li muab daim nplaum rau ntawm koj lub tsheb lossis hnav khawm," nws hais.

Dueling nom tswv tswv yim nyob rau hauv Wisconsin tej zaum yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv lub loj heev hloov nyob rau hauv lub nroog los ntawm Republican mus rau Democratic nyob rau hauv 2008. Nyob rau hauv 2004, 45 lub nroog mus rau Bush. Xyoo tas los, McCain yeej tsuas yog 13 lub nroog xwb.

Ib qho kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog hauv Brown County, uas ib txwm tau xaiv tsa Republican. Lub nroog tau pov npav rau Bush los ntawm 10-point margin, 54-44, hauv 2004. Xyoo tas los, lub nroog suav nrog Wisconsin lub nroog loj thib peb, Green Bay, flopped, txhawb Obama los ntawm 9-point margin, 54-45.

Wlub kaus mom tom ntej?

Nyem rau daim ntawv qhia loj loj ntawm cov neeg pov npav los ntawm lub nroog rau kev xaiv tsa xyoo 2008

Cov thawj coj ntawm lub xeev Republican thiab Democratic tog tau hais tias lawv ntseeg tias Wisconsin tseem yuav muaj kev sib tw hauv xyoo 2010 thiab kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm tom ntej xyoo 2012.

Mike Tate, tus thawj coj ntawm Democratic Party of Wisconsin, tau hais tias nws ntxov dhau los txiav txim siab seb lub zog los ntawm kev xaiv tsa xyoo tas los yuav dhau mus txog xyoo 2010.

Republicans hais tias txawm hais tias McCain poob qis hauv xyoo 2008, lawv zoo siab.

"Cov Republican yuav ua tau zoo los tuav tus tswv xeev lub chaw ua haujlwm xyoo tom ntej," Republican Party ntawm Wisconsin Thawj Tswj Hwm Reince Priebus tau hais tias, ntxiv cov tog neeg yuav hais txog kev sib xyaw ntawm lub xeev thiab lub teb chaws cov teeb meem suav nrog kev loj hlob ntawm txoj haujlwm thiab "tswj cov nqi kho mob thaum tswj cov neeg siv khoom. kev xaiv."

Tate tau hais tias thaum qee tus Republicans nyob hauv tsev xyoo 2008, ntau tus Democrats tau ua ib yam. Nws hais tias nyob rau lub lis piam ua ntej lub Kaum Ib Hlis kev xaiv tsa, Wisconsin tsis raug suav hais tias yog lub xeev viav vias, thiab ntau tus Democrats xav tias Obama yuav yeej lawm.

"Kuv xav tias koj muaj lub teb chaws lub siab xav ua phem tawm tsam George Bush thiab qhov kev txhawj xeeb hnyav txog kev lag luam ... ua ke nrog qhov tseeb tias Obama phiaj los nqis tes ua haujlwm hauv zej zog, hauv paus hauv paus," Tate tau hais.

Republican Party ntawm Wisconsin Tus Thawj Coj Tus Thawj Coj Mark Jefferson tau lees paub tias muaj "kev txaus siab qhov sib txawv uas tsis tuaj yeem lees paub ntawm Obama cov neeg txhawb nqa thiab cov neeg txhawb nqa McCain." Nws tau pom zoo nrog Tate tias cov neeg tawm suab hauv Republican qis dua tuaj yeem piav qhia los ntawm Wisconsin qhov kev hloov pauv los ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua lig hauv kev sib tw thiab muaj kev txhawj xeeb thoob plaws tebchaws txog kev lag luam thiab tsoomfwv cov nyiaj pab nyiaj txiag ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas.

Nyem rau daim ntawv qhia loj ntawm Wisconsin lub xeev pov npav rau kev xaiv tsa xyoo 2004

Jefferson tau hais tias "Thaum lub tebchaws muaj kev ntxhov siab, nws ua rau hauv Wisconsin ib yam nkaus," Nws hais tias McCain camp pib txo qis kev sib tw hauv Wisconsin li peb lub lis piam ua ntej kev xaiv tsa. "Lawv tseem siv zog, tab sis nws tsis yog kev siv zog tag nrho raws li qhov xav tau."

Local vs. national

Txawm hais tias Wisconsin qhov kev xaiv tsa nom tswv tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog cov teeb meem hauv tebchaws xws li kev lag luam thiab kev kho mob kho mob lossis kev txhawj xeeb hauv zej zog xws li se vaj tse thiab kev poob haujlwm yog qhov kev sib cav.

Gubernatorial kev xaiv tsa hauv Wisconsin ib txwm ua rau cov neeg xaiv tsa tsawg dua, txij li lawv tau tuav hauv xyoo tsis yog thawj tswj hwm xaiv tsa. Tsib caug-ib feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg pov npav tau tawm mus rau qhov kev xaiv tsa zaum kawg hauv xyoo 2006 thiab 44 feem pua ​​​​hauv xyoo 2002. Franklin tau hais tias cov neeg uas tawm mus yuav muaj kev nom kev tswv ntau dua li cov neeg xaiv tsa nom tswv.

Franklin ntseeg hais tias Obama qhov kev ua tiav lossis kev ua tsis tiav ntawm lub tebchaws tuaj yeem pab lossis ua rau tus neeg twg los ua tus tswv xeev. Yog tias kev lag luam rov qab los lossis tso tsheb hlau luam, ob tog yuav sim thov qiv nyiaj lossis muab liam rau, nws hais.

Nyem rau daim ntawv qhia tag nrho rau Wisconsin lub xeev pov npav rau kev xaiv tsa xyoo 2008

Franklin tau hais tias "Nrog Doyle tawm ntawm daim duab, muaj ntau chav rau Democrat thiab Republican cov neeg xaiv tsa los ua pov thawj rau daim duab hauv tebchaws," Franklin hais. "Qhov kev cuam tshuam hauv tebchaws no cuam tshuam rau pej xeem kev xav ntawm no hauv lub xeev."

John Dobyns, peb lub sijhawm Republican yav dhau los tus neeg tsim cai lij choj hauv xeev los ntawm Fond du Lac, tau hais tias nws ntseeg tias cov teeb meem hauv zej zog yuav ua pov thawj txiav txim siab hauv xyoo 2010. Wisconsin tau txhawb cov neeg xaiv nom tswv ywj pheej txij li xyoo 1988 - thaum plaub zaug xaiv Tommy Thompson, Republican, ua tus tswv xeev.

"Thaum koj saib keeb kwm ntawm kev xaiv tsa (hauv Wisconsin), qhov no (tsis yog tus thawj tswj hwm xaiv tsa) yog lub xyoo uas tib neeg pov npav hauv zos," Dobyns, tus neeg txhawb nqa Walker tau hais.

Tsis muaj feem ntau ruaj khov rau Democrats

Jefferson tau ceeb toom tias Wisconsin muaj keeb kwm tsis ntev los no ntawm kev hloov cov tog neeg thaum ib tus neeg muaj zog heev. Tam sim no, Democrats tuav tus tswv xeev lub chaw haujlwm thiab ob lub tsev tsim cai lij choj. Tate tau sau npe rau xyoo tas los yeej ob tus lej rau Obama hauv Wisconsin ntau dua ntawm "kev tsis txaus ntseeg" dua li qhov kev hloov pauv mus tas li ntawm cov neeg xaiv tsa.

“Kev tswj hwm tsoomfwv hauv Wisconsin yog ib yam; tswj nws kom ntev li ntev tau yog lwm yam, "Jefferson hais. "Cov neeg pov npav hauv Wisconsin tsis kam muab ib tog neeg tswj hwm tau ntev heev."

Predicted Dobyns: "Nws yuav yog qhov nthuav, nthuav 15 lub hlis rau cov neeg hauv Wisconsin."

Hais txog cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa

Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism xyoo 2008 tau kwv yees cov neeg tawm mus thoob lub xeev ntawm 69 feem pua ​​thiab nws cov kev suav hauv lub nroog los ntawm lub nroog suav nrog txhua tus neeg laus, tsis hais txog neeg pej xeem, vim hais tias cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws tsis yog pej xeem tsis muaj nyob hauv lub nroog.

Lub Center qhov kev tshuaj xyuas yog nyob ntawm lub nroog pov npav tag nrho los ntawm Lub Xeev Tsoom Fwv Saib Xyuas Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev xaiv tsa thiab kev pov npav hnub nyoog kwv yees los ntawm lub Xeev Lub Chaw Pabcuam Zej Zog. Cov ntaub ntawv tshawb nrhiav tau ntawm cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa thiab cov txiaj ntsig rau xyoo 2004, 2006 thiab 2008 los ntawm lub nroog muaj nyob ntawm www.WisconsinWatch.org.

Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Suav Pej Xeem Meskas tau suav Wisconsin qhov kev tso tawm xyoo 2008 ntawm 71 feem pua ​​​​thaum cov neeg tsis yog pej xeem, uas tsis tsim nyog pov npav, raug cais tawm.

Hauv Tebchaws, Lub Chaw Saib Xyuas Kev Suav Pej Xeem tau hais tias, cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa tseem zoo li qub txij xyoo 2004 txog 2008, ntawm 64 feem pua. Raws li lub koom haum, Minnesota tau ua thawj tus neeg xaiv tsa hauv xyoo 2008, tom qab ntawd Washington, DC Wisconsin khi rau thib peb nrog New Hampshire thiab Maine.

Cov nonprofit Wisconsin Center rau Kev Tshawb Xyuas Xov Xwm (www.WisconsinWatch.org) koom tes nrog Wisconsin Cov Xov Xwm Zej Tsoom, Wisconsin Cov Xov Xwm Rau Pej Xeem, lwm cov xov xwm tshaj tawm thiab UW-Madison Tsev Kawm Ntawv Xov Xwm thiab Kev Sib Txuas Lus. Txhua yam haujlwm tsim, tshaj tawm, tshaj tawm lossis tshaj tawm los ntawm Lub Chaw tsis tas yuav cuam tshuam cov kev xav lossis kev xav ntawm UW-Madison lossis ib qho ntawm cov koom tes.

Rov luam tawm peb cov ntawv dawb, hauv online lossis luam tawm, raws li daim ntawv tso cai Creative Commons.

Nrov dab neeg los ntawm Wisconsin Watch

Tsab xov xwm "Wisconsin Watch" sawv cev rau cov tswv cuab ntawm Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism cov kev kho thiab kev koom tes rau pej xeem thiab cov neeg ua hauj lwm ua lag luam.