July 17, 2012

Cash flows into state congressional races

“This Modern World,” the biting satirical cartoon by the pseudonymous Tom Tomorrow, recently proposed streamlining the American political process.

“Take elections,” mused the strip’s narrator. “They’re such an inefficient way to purchase a government! That’s why we’ll be replacing them with eBay auctions! Simple and straightforward — highest bidder wins! You probably won’t even notice the difference.”

Such cynical assessments — that when it comes picking national leaders, money matters most — are common. And sadly, they’re not unfounded.

Take elections for U.S. Congress. Please.

In general elections since 2000, Wisconsin has seen four contested U.S. Senate races and 47 matchups for the House of Representatives. All but twice, the candidate with the most money won, according to OpenSecrets.org, a website run by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

Both exceptions occurred in 2010. Republican upstart Ron Johnson bested Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, despite being outraised $20.8 million to $15.2 million — arguably still a lot of cash (more than half from Johnson himself). And GOP challenger Reid Ribble won with just $1.3 million against Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen’s $2.1 million. (These numbers do not include spending by outside groups.)

Elections are not auctions and even high-spending incumbents sometimes lose. But the correlation between raising the most cash and getting the most votes is strong.

This year, four Republicans are vying for the Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Herb Kohl. Two of them, former Gov. Tommy Thompson and former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann, have each raised about $2.2 million though the first half of the year.

A recent poll puts Thompson out front heading into the Aug. 14 primary, but with businessman Eric Hovde nipping at his heels. Hovde has raised only about $350,000 from outside sources but poured $4 million into his own campaign. Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald lags far behind, in polls and fundraising, and now hangs his election hopes on low turnout.

Whoever survives the primary will face Democrat Tammy Baldwin, who has raised $6.7 million so far, in the Nov. 6 general election.

The races for Wisconsin’s eight House seats include a hot primary in District 2 between state Reps. Mark Pocan and Kelda Helen Roys, both Madison Democrats. Pocan has raised $734,550 to Roy’s $392,393, federal filings show. The victor will face Republican Chad Lee, who’s raised $33,550.

Some challengers are raising large sums but still falling well short of even. In District 8, Jamie Wall has raked in $687,023, but incumbent Ribble has $1.5 million. In District 7, former state Sen. Patrick Kreitlow has $775,440, against Rep. Sean Duffy’s $1.8 million. And in District 1, Rob Zerban has managed to raise $1.2 million — but his opponent, Rep. Paul Ryan, has raised $4.2 million since his last election and now has $5.4 million on hand.

Of the remaining races, several are fundraising blowouts. In District 6, Republican Tom Petri has nearly $1 million on hand for a race against an unfunded primary challenger and nonexistent Democrat. In District 3, Democrat Ron Kind has $1.5 million to GOP challenger Ray Boland’s $53,098. In District 4, Democrat Gwen Moore has raised $609,890 and spent all but $97,545, which is still eight times what her GOP challenger, Dan Sebring, has snared overall.

And in District 5, Republican James Sensenbrenner has raised $415,080; his Democratic challenger, David Heaster, has raised no funds and uses his entertaining website to urge that well-wishers donate to their favorite worthy cause, not him. “Could you imagine what good we could do with all of the millions of dollars” spent on elections? he asks.

It’s a good question. All told, the state’s active candidates for Congress and Senate have raised more than $30 million through June 30, with more than four months to go.

3 thoughts on “Cash flows into state congressional races

  1. Bill, you thoughtfully neglected to mention another correlation embedded in your observation that those who win races are also top fundraisers. Maybe the folks who raise the most money have the most electoral/popular support. The horse often comes before the cart.

  2. I disagree with Timbo. Money does not show your support, it shows how many millionaires and special interest groups have bought you off. Paul Ryan is a perfect example. Ryan has raised more money from Wall Street than any other member of Congress. He has written a budget to destroy the economy and kick seniors of Medicare and this is incredibly unpopular. Ryan has no support from the people of Wisconsin but we will have to deal with his outside money coming in to lie to us again.

  3. Pingback: Cash-lite campaigns easy to overlook | WisconsinWatch.org

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